Nonelection Tuesday (For Me)

In case you haven't heard, the global warming outlook hasn't gotten much better.

An economic prediction: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6093396.stm

The worst hit? The continent with the lowest greenhouse gas emissions of course; Africa. As if it didn't have enough problems. Possible scenerios according to peopleandplanet.net:

It estimates that 30 percent of Africa’s coastal infrastructure could be inundated, and between 25 per cent and over 40 per cent of species’ habitats in Africa could be lost by 2085. Cereal crop yields will decline by up to five per cent by the 2080s with subsistence crops also suffering climate-linked falls.

The new report has been prepared with the help of a team led by Dr. Baglis Osman Elasha, Senior Researcher in the Climate Change Unit of the Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources in the Sudanese Ministry of the Environment.

“We are already seeing climate related changes in my country. The Gum Arabic belt, an economically important crop, has shifted southwards below latitude 14 degrees north, and the rains which used to occur from mid-June to the end of August now start in mid-July until the end of September with important ramifications for agriculture and livelihoods,” she said.

Key findings:

Sea levels

• Sea levels could rise by 15 to 95 cm by 2100, according to some estimates. The number of people at risk in Africa from coastal flooding will rise from one million in 1990 to 70 million by 2080.
  
• An estimated 30 per cent of Africa’s coastal infrastructure could be at risk including coastal settlements in the Gulf of Guinea, Senegal, the Gambia, and Egypt.
  
• Along the East-Southern African coast cities at risk include Cape Town, Maputo and Dar Es-Salaam.
  
• A one-metre rise in the Atlantic will lead to part of the economic capital of Nigeria, Lagos, disappearing. Alexandria in Egypt could also be severely impacted costing that country over $30 billion a year in lost land, infrastructure and tourist revenues.
  
• A sea level rise of 50 cm would inundate 2,000 square km of land in Tanzania costing around $50 million.

Biodiversity and ecosystems

• One study, examining over 5,000 plant species in Africa, has concluded that around 80 to well over 90 per cent of species’ suitable habitats will decrease in size or shift due to climate change.
  
• By 2085, between 25 per cent and over 40 per cent of species’ habitats could be lost altogether.
  
• Shifts in rainfall patterns could affect the fynbos and karoo in southern Africa by altering the fire regime critical for their regeneration.
  
• Wetland ecosystems such as the Okavanga Delta and the Sudd area could be impacted by decreased run-off.
  
• The coastal zones are also likely to be impacted by climate change with reduced fish productivity, coral bleaching, salt water intrusion, loss of beach facilities and tourism revenues.

Agriculture, water supplies and land

• Over 95 per cent of Africa’s agriculture depends on rainfall. Models indicate that 80,000 square km of agricultural land in sub-Saharan Africa currently deemed constrained will improve as a result of climate change.
  
• However, 600,000 square km currently classed as moderately constrained will become severely limited.
  
• Experts estimate that cereal crop yields will decline by up to five per cent by the 2080s. There will be a general decline also in most subsistence crops such as sorghum in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Zambia; maize in Ghana, millet in Sudan and groundnuts in the Gambia. - peopleandplanet.net

You really know we're all in trouble when Rubert Murdoch (owner of Fox News and a billion other things) changes his mind. According to zeenews.com "Conservative media mogul Rupert Murdoch said on Monday he has had a change of heart on climate change and now believes global action is needed -- although not in the form of the US-opposed Kyoto Protocol. "

It's too bad one leader's inactions of one particular country with enormous greenhouse gas emissions could potentially have such a negative effect on an entire continent that has enough problems the way it is. Moral of the story.. don't forget to go out and vote today! I was looking forward to voting a great deal this year, but I've been deprived this inherent right by my own local government.. I took the time to apply for an absentee ballot before I left, but it never came here. Perhaps it's still in transit?? The other volunteers seemed to get their ballots fine. Liberty and Justice for All.. except for Peace Corps volunteers from Hughes County, South Dakota that is.